Sains Malaysiana 46(8)(2017): 1333–1339

http://dx.doi.org/10.17576/jsm-2017-4608-20

 

Aplikasi Model Baharu Penambahbaikan Pendekatan Kalut ke atas Peramalan Siri Masa Kepekatan Ozon

(New Improved Chaotic Approach Model Application on Forecasting Ozone Concentration Time Series)

 

NOR ZILA ABD HAMID¹* & MOHD SALMI MD NOORANI²

 

¹Jabatan Matematik, Fakulti Sains dan Matematik, Universiti Pendidikan Sultan Idris, 35900 Tanjung Malim, Perak Darul Ridzuan, Malaysia

 

²Pusat Pengajian Sains Matematik, Fakulti Sains dan Teknologi, 43600 UKM Bangi, Selangor Darul Ehsan, Malaysia

 

Received: 22 July 2016/Accepted: 13 January 2017

 

ABSTRAK

Kajian ini merupakan aplikasi pendekatan kalut ke atas peramalan siri masa bahan pencemar udara ozon di stesen asas Malaysia yang terletak di Jerantut, Pahang. Sebelum model peramalan dibina, siri masa diuji terlebih dahulu sama ada bersifat kalut atau tidak. Melalui plot ruang fasa dan kaedah Cao, siri masa bahan pencemar ozon didapati bersifat kalut bermatra rendah. Oleh itu, model peramalan melalui kaedah penghampiran linear setempat dibina. Sebagai inovasi, model ini ditambah baik. Sebagai perbandingan, model peramalan regresi linear turut dibina. Melalui pengiraan purata ralat mutlak, ralat punca purata kuasa dua dan pekali korelasi, keputusan menunjukkan bahawa model baharu penambahbaikan penghampiran linear setempat adalah lebih baik berbanding model-model yang lain. Maka, penambahbaikan yang dilakukan adalah berbaloi. Dengan itu, pendekatan kalut adalah pendekatan alternatif yang sesuai digunakan bagi membangunkan model peramalan siri masa bahan pencemar ozon. Penemuan model baharu dalam kajian ini diharap dapat membantu memudahkan usaha pihak-pihak berkepentingan dalam menguruskan isu pencemaran udara, khususnya ozon.

 

Kata kunci: Kaedah penghampiran setempat; Malaysia; ozon; pendekatan kalut; peramalan

 

ABSTRACT

This study is an application of chaotic approach on forecasting the ozone air pollutant time series at Malaysian background station located in Jerantut, Pahang. Before the forecasting model can be built, the time series are tested in advance whether the nature is chaotic or not. Through phase space plot and Cao method, the ozone air pollutant time series were found to be low in dimensional chaotic. Therefore, the forecasting model through local linear approximation is constructed. As an innovation, this model is improved. As comparison, the linear regression forecasting model was also constructed. By calculating the mean absolute error, root mean square error and correlation coefficient, the results showed that the new improved local linear approximation model is better than the other models. Thus, the improvement was worth it. Therefore, chaotic approach is an alternative approach that can be used to contruct forecasting model for ozone pollutants time series. The discovery of new method in this study is expected to help facilitate the efforts of stakeholders in dealing with the issues of air pollution, especially ozone.

 

Keywords: Chaotic approach; forecasting; local approximation method; Malaysia; ozone

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*Corresponding author; email: nor_zila@yahoo.com