Sains Malaysiana 50(5)(2021): 1497-1509

http://doi.org/10.17576/jsm-2021-5005-28

Modelling the Spread of COVID-19 on Malaysian Contact Networks for Practical Reopening Strategies in an Institutional Setting

(Pemodelan Penyebaran COVID-19 ke atas Rangkaian Kontak di Malaysia untuk Strategi Pembukaan Semula yang Praktikal dalam Sesuatu Institusi)

FATIMAH ABDUL RAZAK¹*& PAUL EXPERT^2,3

¹Department of Mathematical Science, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600 UKM Bangi, Selangor Darul Ehsan, Malaysia

²Global Digital Health Unit, Imperial College London, SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom

³Tokyo Tech World Research Hub Initiative, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Japan

Received: 31 January 2021/Accepted: 17 March 2021

ABSTRACT

Reopening strategies are crucial to balance efforts of economic revitalization and bringing back a sense of normalcy while mitigating outbreaks and effectively flattening the infection curve. This paper proposes practical reopening, monitoring and testing strategies for institutions to reintroduce physical meetings based on SIR simulations run on a student friendship network collected pre-COVID-19. These serve as benchmarks to assess several testing strategies that can be applied in physical classes. Our simulations show that the best outbreak mitigation results are obtained with full knowledge of contact, but are also robust to non-compliance of students to new social interaction guidelines, simulated by partial knowledge of the interactions. These results are not only applicable to institutions but also for any organization or company wanting to navigate the COVID-19 ravaged world.

Keywords: Contact networks; COVID-19; friendship networks; reopening strategies; SIR on networks

ABSTRAK

Strategi pembukaan semula sangat penting dalam menyeimbangkan usaha pemulihan semula ekonomi tanpa mengabaikan usaha melandaikan lengkung jangkitan. Makalah ini mencadangkan beberapa strategi pengawasan dan pengujian yang praktikal bagi mengadakan perjumpaan fizikal berdasarkan simulasi ke atas rangkaian persahabatan pelajar yang dikumpul sebelum penyebaran COVID-19. Simulasi ini boleh digunakan sebagai penanda aras untuk menguji beberapa strategi pembukaan semula yang boleh diguna pakai dalam kelas. Simulasi kami menunjukkan bahawa strategi terbaik diperoleh dengan mengetahui maklumat penuh rangkaian perhubungan. Namun begitu, kami juga mencadangkan strategi yang tidak memerlukan maklumat rangkaian. Dapatan ini bukan sahaja terhad kepada institusi tetapi ia juga boleh diguna pakai oleh sebarang organisasi atau syarikat dalam menghadapi norma baharu era COVID-19.

Kata kunci: COVID-19; rangkaian kontak; rangkaian persahabatan; SIR dalam rangkaian; strategi pembukaan semula

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*Corresponding author; email: fatima84@ukm.edu.my