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Sains Malaysiana 50(7)(2021): 1843-1856
http://doi.org/10.17576/jsm-2021-5007-02
A Comparative Flood Frequency Analysis of High-Flow between Annual
Maximum and Partial Duration Series at Sungai Langat Basin
(Suatu Perbandingan Analisis Kekerapan Banjir Aliran Tinggi antara Siri Maksimum Tahunan dan Siri Tempoh Separa di Lembangan Sungai Langat)
FIRDAUS MOHAMAD HAMZAH*,
HAZRINA TAJUDIN & OTHMAN JAAFAR
Faculty of Engineering
and Built Environment, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600 UKM Bangi, Selangor Darul Ehsan, Malaysia
Received: 14 August 2020/Accepted:
30 November 2020
ABSTRACT
Flood frequency analysis should
consider small and frequent floods. Despite the complexities in partial
duration series implementation, it can give a better flood estimation in a way
that it does not exclude any significant high flow events, even if it is not
the highest event of the year. This study employs the streamflow data recorded
at Kajang station, Sungai Langat, Malaysia over a 36-year period spanning from 1978 to
2013. The paper attempts to conduct flood frequency analysis using two
approaches, annual maximum and partial duration series. The optimal threshold
value is selected to be 48.7 m3/s, where the dispersion index
stabilizes at around 1, DI = 1
Keywords: Flood
frequency analysis; generalized extreme value; generalized Pareto; Sungai
Langat; three-parameter lognormal
ABSTRAK
Analisis kekerapan banjir harus mempertimbangkan kejadian banjir dengan magnitud kecil dan kerap. Walaupun terdapat kerumitan dalam pelaksanaan data siri separa, ia memiliki kemampuan untuk memberikan anggaran banjir yang lebih baik, dengan tidak mengecualikan kejadian aliran tinggi yang signifikan, walaupun ia bukan peristiwa tertinggi tahun ini. Kajian ini menggunakan data aliran yang direkodkan di stesen Kajang, Sungai Langat,
Malaysia dalam jangka masa
36 tahun yang merangkumi tahun 1978 hingga 2013. Objektif utama kajian ini adalah menjalankan analisis kekerapan banjir menggunakan dua pendekatan iaitu data tahunan maksimum dan data siri separa. Nilai ambang optimum dipilih menjadi 48.7 m3/s dengan indeks penyebaran stabil pada sekitar 1, DI = 1. Taburan nilai ekstrim teritlak (GEV) menerangkan data maksimum tahunan sementara taburan lognormal dan
Pareto teritlak dipilih sebagai taburan yang paling sesuai di stesen Kajang untuk data siri separa. Terdapat sedikit perbezaan antara magnitud aliran dengan menggunakan taburan Pareto teritlak dan
lognormal untuk tempoh pulangan yang dipilih. Manakala, perbezaan yang cukup besar dapat dilihat apabila menggunakan data tahunan maksima terutamanya pada tempoh pulangan yang lebih tinggi. Secara kesimpulan, PDS memberikan anggaran magnitud yang lebih relevan berbanding AMS. Kekerapan banjir memainkan peranan penting dalam memahami sifat dan besarnya aliran tinggi, yang seterusnya dapat membantu agensi yang berkaitan dalam merancang struktur hidrologi dan mengurangkan kesan kejadian banjir.
Kata kunci: Analisis kekerapan banjir; lognormal tiga-parameter; nilai ekstrim teritlak; Pareto teritlak; Sungai Langat
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*Corresponding
author; email: fir@ukm.edu.my
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