Sains Malaysiana 51(2)(2022): 437-449

http://doi.org/10.17576/jsm-2022-5102-09

Analysis of the Relationship between Climate Change and Land Use Change using the ESA CCI Land Cover Maps in Sungai Kelantan Basin, Malaysia

(Analisis Hubungan antara Perubahan Iklim dan Perubahan Guna Tanah menggunakan Peta Guna Tanah ESA CCI dalam Lembangan Sungai Kelantan, Malaysia)

YI LIN TEW¹, MOU LEONG TAN¹*, KWOK PAN CHUN², NARIMAH SAMAT¹ & MOHD AMIRUL MAHAMUD¹

¹GeoInformatic Unit, Geography Section, School of Humanities, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 11800 USM, Pulau Pinang, Malaysia

²Department of Geography and Environmental Management, University of the West of England, Bristol, United Kingdom

Received: 19 February 2021/Accepted: 11 June 2021

ABSTRACT

Climate and land use land cover (LULC) are two major key drives that affect the hydrological cycle pattern within a river basin. This study aims to evaluate the capability of the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative land cover (ESA CCI LC) product in representing land use pattern in Sungai Kelantan Basin (KRB), Malaysia; to analyze the changes of rainfall, maximum and minimum temperatures of the KRB from 1979 to 2018; and to assess the relationships between climate and land use changes within KRB. The results show that the ESA CCI LC product is applicable to represent LULC of the KRB, with an overall accuracy of 74.72% and a Kappa coefficient of 0.66. Trend analysis indicates that maximum and minimum temperatures of the KRB increased significantly at 95% confident level by 0.01 to 0.03 °C/year and 0.01 to 0.05 °C/year, respectively. Whereas annual precipitation at the Pos Hau, Pos Bihai, Pos Gob, and Kuala Krai stations increased significantly with the rates of 17.5 to 29.74 mm/year. The correlation shows that urban expansion in Gua Musang had a strong correlation with annual rainfall with a correlation coefficient (CC) value of -0.78. Furthermore, the conversion of forest into croplands over the Tanah Merah increased the minimum temperature significantly, with a CC value of -0.73.  The findings show that the changes of land use in the middle basin contributed to the variations in temperature.

Keywords: Climate; ESA; Kelantan; land use; rainfall; temperature; tropical

ABSTRAK

Iklim dan guna tanah merupakan dua pemacu utama yang mempengaruhi corak kitaran hidrologi di lembangan sungai. Produk guna tanah global European Space Agency program inisiatif iklim (ESA CCI LC) bagi tahun 1992 hingga 2018 boleh dijadikan data alternatif untuk menganalisis hubungan antara perubahan iklim dan guna tanah. Objektif kajian ini adalah untuk mengesahkan ketepatan produk guna tanah European Space Agency program inisiatif iklim (ESA CCI LC) dalam membentangkan jenis guna tanah di lembangan Sungai Kelantan (KRB) Malaysia; menganalisis trend perubahan hujan, suhu maksimum dan minimum di KRB dari 1979 sehingga 2018; serta menilai hubungan antara perubahan dan iklim serta guna tanah di KRB. Hasil kajian menunjukkan produk ESA CCI LC boleh membentangkan guna tanah di KRB dengan ketepatan keseluruhan 74.72% dan pekali Kappa 0.66. Analisis trend menunjukkan suhu maksimum dan minimum di KRB mengalami peningkatan signifikan pada tahap keyakinan 95% pada kadar 0.01 ke 0.03 °C/tahun dan 0.01 ke 0.05 °C/tahun. Manakala, hujan tahunan di stesen Pos Hau, Pos Bihai, Pos Gob dan Kuala Krai meningkat secara signifikan dengan kadar 17.5 sehingga ke 29.74 mm/tahun. Kolerasi ruang pula menunjukkan pengembangan bandar di Gua Musang amat berkaitan dengan hujan tahunan dengan nilai kolerasi -0.78. Tambahan pula, penukaran kawasan hutan kepada tanah penanaman di Tanah Merah meningkatkan suhu minimum dengan nilai korelasi -0.73. Hasil kajian ini telah menunjukkan perubahan guna tanah di kawasan pertengahan KRB menyumbang kepada perubahan suhu.

Kata kunci: ESA; guna tanah; hujan; iklim; Kelantan; suhu; tropika

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*Corresponding author; email: mouleong@usm.my