Sains Malaysiana 45(9)(2016): 1345–1350

Aging and Economic Growth: Empirical Analysis using Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach

(Penuaan dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi: Analisis Empirik menggunakan Pendekatan Autoregresi Susulan Teragih)

NORMAZ WANA ISMAIL^1*, HAJAH SITI WARDAH HAJI ABD RAHMAN¹, TENGKU AIZAN TENGKU ABDUL HAMID² & RUSMAWATI SAID¹

¹Faculty of Economics and Management, Universiti Putra Malaysia, 43300 Serdang, Selangor Darul Ehsan, Malaysia

²My Ageing (Institute Penyelidikan Penuaan Malaysia), Universiti Putra Malaysia, 43300 Serdang, Selangor Darul Ehsan, Malaysia

Diserahkan: 21 Disember 2015/Diterima: 28 April 2016

ABSTRACT

The purpose of this study was to examine the impact of aging on economic growth. The study used dynamic growth model and employed Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach for the period of 1980 to 2011. Three proxies for aging are used namely fertility rate, life expectancy and old dependency ratio. However, only fertility rate is detected to have a long run cointegration. The major finding of this study showed that a reduction of fertility rate lead to higher economic growth. This implied that even though Malaysia will face aging society by 2020, the economic growth is still stable and can increase by investing more on human capital.

Keywords: ARDL; fertility rate; Malaysia; population aging

ABSTRAK

Tujuan penyelidikan ini ialah untuk mengkaji impak penuaan kepada pertumbuhan ekonomi. Kajian ini menggunakan model pertumbuhan yang dinamik dan pendekatan autoregresi susulan teragih (ARDL) untuk jangka masa dari 1980 hingga 2011. Tiga proksi untuk penuaan telah digunakan iaitu kadar kesuburan, jangka hidup dan nisbah tanggungan orang tua. Namun hanya kadar kesuburan didapati mempunyai kointegrasi jangka panjang. Hasil utama kajian ini mendapati penurunan kadar kesuburan menyumbang kepada pertumbuhan ekonomi yang lebih tinggi. Ini menunjukkan bahawa walaupun Malaysia akan berdepan dengan masyarakat yang semakin tua pada tahun 2020, pertumbuhan ekonomi masih stabil dan boleh meningkat dengan lebih banyak membuat pelaburan dalam modal insan.

Kata kunci: ARDL; kadar kesuburan; Malaysia; penuaan penduduk

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*Pengarang untuk surat-menyurat; email: nwi@upm.edu.my