Sains Malaysiana 46(10)(2017): 1735–1741

http://dx.doi.org/10.17576/jsm-2017-4610-09

Identifying the Monotonic Trend in Climate Change Parameter in Kluang and Senai, Johor, Malaysia

(Mengenal Pasti Tren Berekanada di dalam Parameter Perubahan Iklim di Kluang

dan Senai, Johor, Malaysia)

FIRDAUS MOHAMAD HAMZAH*, FARAHANI MOHD SAIMI & OTHMAN JAAFAR

Department of Civil and Structural Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Build Environment, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600 UKM Bangi, Selangor Darul Ehsan, Malaysia

Diserahkan: 29 Januari 2017/Diterima: 29 Ogos 2017

ABSTRACT

Presently, climate change plays an important role as it gives a serious impact to the living things on earth. Analyzing the trend of climate change is very important in identifying the pattern of changes because it can give an initial overview for future analysis. In this study, trend analysis was carried out to study the pattern of changes for five climate change parameters, such as total amount of monthly precipitation (mm), monthly average temperature (°C), monthly average global radiation (MJm^–2), monthly average wind speed (m/s) and monthly average humidity (%) during the period of 1974 to 2010. Comparisons were made between two research stations, which were the Senai International Airport and Kluang Meteorological Stations. In this study, the Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen’s slope estimator test were used to identify the monotonic trend for these climate change parameters. As a result of this analysis, the precipitations showed no trend for both locations and the radiation showed no trend in Kluang from both analyses. Meanwhile, other parameters in Senai and Kluang showed a monotonic trend, according to the Tau value (Z) and the Sen’s slope value. The temperature shows a positive trend for both locations.

Keywords: Climate change parameter; Mann-Kendall trend test; monotonic trend; non-parametric trend estimator; Sen’s slope estimator test

ABSTRAK

Perubahan iklim memainkan peranan yang penting pada masa kini berikutan kesan serius terhadap kehidupan di bumi. Analisis tren perubahan iklim amat penting dalam mengenal pasti perubahan coraknya kerana analisis ini dapat memberi gambaran awal dalam membuat analisis lanjutan. Dalam kajian ini, analisis tren dilakukan untuk melihat perubahan iklim bagi parameter perubahan iklim, iaitu jumlah jatuhan hujan bulanan (mm), purata suhu bulanan (°C), purata radiasi global bulanan (MJm^–2), purata kelajuan angin bulanan (m/s) serta purata kelembapan bulanan (%) sepanjang tempoh 1974 sehingga 2010. Perbandingan dibuat antara dua stesen kajian, iaitu stesen meteorologi Lapangan Terbang Antarabangsa Senai dan Stesen Meteorologi Kluang. Dalam kajian ini, ujian tren Mann-Kendall dan ujian anggaran kecerunan Sen digunakan bagi melihat tren parameter perubahan iklim. Keputusan daripada analisis ini menunjukkan tiada tren parameter hujan bagi kedua-dua kawasan dan radiasi juga tidak menunjukkan tren keputusan daripada kedua-dua analisis. Manakala parameter lain menunjukkan tren berekanada di Senai dan Kluang berdasarkan nilai Tau (Z) dan nilai kecerunan Sen. Tren positif ditunjukkan bagi suhu di kedua-dua kawasan.

Kata kunci: Anggaran tren tak berparameter; parameter perubahan iklim; tren berekanada; ujian anggaran kecerunan Sen; ujian tren Mann-Kendall

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*Pengarang untuk surat-menyurat; email: fir@ukm.edu.my