Sains Malaysiana 48(7)(2019): 1333–1345

http://dx.doi.org/10.17576/jsm-2019-4807-03

Drivers of Land Use-Land Cover Changes in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia

(Pemacu Kegunaan Tanah - Perubahan Liputan Tanah di Lembah Rekahan Tengah Ethiopia)

BELEW BEKELE^1,2, WEI WU^1,3* & ESHETU YIRSAW⁴

¹College of Land Management, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China

²Department of Natural Resources Management, Assosa Agricultural TVET College, Assosa 242, Ethiopia

³National and Joint Local Engineering, Research Center for Rural Land Resources Use and Consolidation, Nanjing 210095, China

⁴Department of Natural Resources Management, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Dilla University, Dilla 419, Ethiopia

Diserahkan: 6 Disember 2018/Diterima: 3 April 2019

ABSTRACT

Land use-land cover change (LULCC) is driven by the interplay of forcing factors that act at global, regional, and local levels. Previous studies investigated mainly the basic socioeconomic drivers of LULCC. However, these studies less considered climate change vulnerability as a potential driver. Hence, this study is aimed to assess LULCC drivers in more fragile and dynamic landscapes of the East African Rift Valley region for the period of 1986-2016. We used a combination of Remote Sensing, Geographic Information System, logistic regression, and descriptive statistics to quantify and analyze the data. Image analysis results indicated that during the overall study period (1986-2016), grass/grazing land, agricultural land, and bare land have increased by 124%, 42%, and 34% respectively, whereas scattered acacia woodland, bush/shrubland, and swampy/marshy land have declined by 52%, 50%, and 31%, in that order. This image-derived change trend is in line with farmers’ perceived results. The top most influential drivers of LULCC includes population growth (95%), fuelwood extraction (93%), agricultural land expansion (92%), charcoal making (92%), climate change/recurrent drought (79%), and overgrazing (71%) in descending order of percentage of respondents. Education level and age of farmers significantly (p<0.05) affected their perception towards less perceived drivers. Hence, in order to reduce the adverse socio-environmental impacts of spectacular LULCC in the region, policy and decision makers need to take into account such principal drivers, particularly population growth and climate change.

Keywords: Central Rift Valley; driver; Ethiopia; land use-land cover change; perception

ABSTRAK

Kegunaan tanah-perubahan litupan tanah (LULCC) didorong oleh interaksi faktor paksaan yang bertindak pada peringkat global, serantau dan tempatan. Kajian sebelum ini hanya mengkaji asas pacuan sosio-ekonomi LULCC. Walau bagaimanapun, kajian tersebut tidak menganggap kerentanan perubahan iklim sebagai pemacu berpotensi. Oleh itu, kajian ini bertujuan untuk menilai pemacu LULCC pada landskap yang lebih rapuh dan dinamik di rantau Lembah Rekahan Afrika Timur bagi tempoh 1986-2016. Kami menggunakan gabungan teknologi pengesanan jarak jauh, sistem maklumat geografi, regresi logistik dan statistik diskriptif untuk menentu dan menganalisis data. Keputusan imej analisis menunjukkan bahawa semasa tempoh kajian keseluruhan (1986-2016), rumput/ragut tanah, tanah pertanian dan tanah lapang telah meningkat masing-masing sebanyak 124%, 42% dan 34% manakala hutan kayu akasia, belukar/tanah semak dan tanah paya/rawang berselerak telah menurun sebanyak 52%, 50% dan 31%. Trend perubahan berasaskan imej ini adalah sejajar dengan keputusan yang dijangka oleh peladang. Pemacu LULCC paling berpengaruh termasuklah pertumbuhan populasi (95%), penyaringan kayu api (93%), pembesaran tanah pertanian (92%), pembuatan arang (92%), perubahan iklim/kemarau berulang (79%) dan ragutan melampau (71%) mengikut peratusan responden. Tahap pendidikan dan umur petani mempengaruhi persepsi mereka dengan ketara (p<0.05) terhadap pemacu yang kurang diamati. Oleh itu, untuk mengurangkan impak sosial alam sekitar LULCC pada rantau ini, dasar dan pembuat keputusan perlu mengambil kira pemacu utama tersebut, terutamanya pertumbuhan populasi dan perubahan iklim.

Kata kunci: Ethiopia; lembah rekahan tengah; pemacu; persepsi; perubahan kegunaan tanah-liputan tanah

RUJUKAN

Ahmed, K.F., Wang, G., You, L. & Yu, M. 2016. Potential impact of climate and socioeconomic changes on future agricultural land use in West Africa. Earth System Dynamics 7(1): 151- 165.

Anderson, J.R. 1976. A Land Use and Land Cover Classification System for Use with Remote Sensor Data, vol 964. US Government Printing Office.

Ariti, A.T., van Vliet, J. & Verburg, P.H. 2015. Land-use and land-cover changes in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia: Assessment of perception and adaptation of stakeholders. Applied Geography 65: 28-37.

Ayenew, T. 2007. Water management problems in the Ethiopian rift: Challenges for development. Journal of African Earth Sciences 48(2-3): 222-236.

Azarnivand, H., Farajollahi, A., Bandak, E. & Pouzesh, H. 2010. Assessment of the effects of overgrazing on the soil physical characteristic and vegetation cover changes in rangelands of Hosainabad in Kurdistan province. Iran Journal of Rangeland Science 1(2): 95-102.

Bahru, T., Asfaw, Z. & Demissew, S. 2012. Indigenous knowledge on fuel wood (charcoal and/or firewood) plant species used by the local people in and around the semi-arid Awash National Park, Ethiopia. Journal of Ecology and the Natural Environment 4(5): 141-149.

Bekele, B., Wu, W., Legesse, A., Temesgen, H. & Yirsaw, E. 2018. Random and systematic land use/land cover transitions in semi-arid landscapes of Ethiopian central rift valley lakes region (East Africa). Applied Ecology and Environmental Research 16(4): 3993-4014.

Bewket, W. & Abebe, S. 2013. Land-use and land-cover change and its environmental implications in a tropical highland watershed, Ethiopia. International Journal of Environmental Studies 70(1): 126-139.

Biazin, B. & Sterk, G. 2013. Drought vulnerability drives land-use and land cover changes in the Rift Valley dry lands of Ethiopia. Agr. Ecosyst. Environ. 164: 100-113.

Booth, D. & Oldfield, R. 1989. A comparison of classification algorithms in terms of speed and accuracy after the application of a post-classification modal filter. Remote Sens. 10(7): 1271-1276.

Braimoh, A.K. 2006. Random and systematic land-cover transitions in northern Ghana. Agr. Ecosyst. Environ. 113(1- 4): 254-263.

Congalton, R.G. & Green, K. 2008. Assessing the Accuracy of Remotely Sensed Data: Principles and Practices. Boca Raton: CRC press.

CSA. 1994. The 1994 Population and Housing Census Results for Oromiya Region. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: Central Statistical Agency.

CSA. 2007. The 2007 Population and Housing Census Results for Oromiya Region. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: Central Statistical Agency.

d’Amour, C.B., Reitsma, F., Baiocchi, G., Barthel, S., Güneralp, B., Erb, K.H., Haberl, H., Creutzig, F. & Seto, K.C. 2017. Future urban land expansion and implications for global croplands. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 114(34): 8939-8944.

Damte, A., Koch, S.F. & Mekonnen, A. 2012. Coping with Fuelwood Scarcity: Household Responses in Rural Ethiopia. Environment for development discussion paper series vol. EfD DP.

de Putter, H., Hengsdijk, H., Roba, S.T. & Wayu, D.A. 2012. Scoping Study of Horticulture Smallholder Production in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia. Plant Research International, Business Unit Agrosystems.

Dessie, G. & Kleman, J. 2007. Pattern and magnitude of deforestation in the South Central Rift Valley Region of Ethiopia. Mt. Res. Dev. 27(2): 162-168.

Few, R., Satyal, P., McGahey, D., Leavy, J., Budds, J., Assen, M., Camfield, L., Loubser, D., Adnew, M. & Bewket, W. 2015. Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Semi-Arid Areas in East Africa. ASSAR Project Management Unit.

Garedew, E., Sandewall, M., Soderberg, U. & Campbell, B.M. 2009. Land-use and land-cover dynamics in the central rift valley of Ethiopia. Environ. Manage. 44(4): 683-694.

Geist, H., McConnell, W., Lambin, E.F., Moran, E., Alves, D. & Rudel, T. 2006. Causes and trajectories of land-use/cover change. In Land-Use and Land-Cover Change: Local Process and Global Impacts, edited by Lambin, E.F. & Geist, H. Berlin Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag. pp. 41-70.

Geist, H.J. & Lambin, E.F. 2002. Proximate causes and underlying driving forces of tropical deforestation. BioScience 52(2): 143-150.

Geist, H.J. & Lambin, E.F. 2001. What Drives Tropical Deforestation. A Meta-Analyis of Proximate and Underlying Causes of Deforestation based on Subnational Case Study Evidence. LUCC Report Series.

Girma, Z. 2016. Challenge and opportunities on energy provision and rural electrification in Ethiopia. International Journal of Renewable Energy Technology 7(2): 184-207.

Hailemariam, S.N., Soromessa, T. & Teketay, D. 2016. Land use and land cover change in the Bale Mountain Eco-Region of Ethiopia during 1985 to 2015. Land 5(4): 41.

Hall, F.G., Strebel, D.E., Nickeson, J.E. & Goetz, S.J. 1991. Radiometric rectification: Toward a common radiometric response among multidate, multisensor images. Remote Sensing of Environment 35(1): 11-27.

Harden, C.P. 2014. The human-landscape system: Challenges for geomorphologists. Physical Geography 35(1): 76-89.

Hassen, E.E. & Assen, M. 2018. Land use/cover dynamics and its drivers in Gelda catchment, Lake Tana watershed, Ethiopia. Environmental Systems Research 6(1): 4.

Hengsdijk, H. & Jansen, H. 2006. Agricultural Development in the Central Ethiopian Rift Valley: A Desk-Study on Water- Related Issues and Knowledge to Support a Policy Dialogue. Note 375. Wageningen: Plant Research International BV.

Hogland, J., Billor, N. & Anderson, N. 2013. Comparison of standard maximum likelihood classification and polytomous logistic regression used in remote sensing. European Journal of Remote Sensing 46(1): 623-640.

Jansen, H., Hengsdijk, H., Legesse, D., Ayenew, T., Hellegers, P. & Spliethoff, P. 2007. Land and water resources assessment in the Ethiopian Central Rift Valley: Project: Ecosystems for water, food and economic development in the Ethiopian Central Rift Valley. Alterra-rapport 1587. Wageningen, Alterra.

Jensen, J.R. 1996. Introductory Digital Image Processing: A Remote Sensing Approach. vol 7458. Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ.

JICA. 2012. The Study on Groundwater Resources Assessment in the Rift-Valley Lakes Basin in the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia (Main and Final Report). Japan International Cooperation Agency (Kokusai Kogyo Co., LTD). Japan International Cooperation Agency (Kokusai Kogyo Co., LTD).

Kindu, M., Schneider, T., Teketay, D. & Knoke, T. 2013. Land use/land cover change analysis using object-based classification approach in Munessa-Shashemene Landscape of the Ethiopian Highlands. Remote Sens. 5(5): 2411-2435.

Kindu, M., Schneider, T., Teketay, D. & Knoke, T. 2015. Drivers of land use/land cover changes in Munessa-Shashemene landscape of the south-central highlands of Ethiopia. Environ. Monit. Assess. 187(7): 452.

Lambin, E.F., Geist, H.J. & Lepers, E. 2003. Dynamics of land-use and land-cover change in tropical regions. Annu. Rev. Env. Resour. 28(1): 205-241.

Lambin, E.F. & Meyfroidt, P. 2011. Global land use change, economic globalization, and the looming land scarcity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 108(9): 3465-3472.

Lesschen, J.P., Verburg, P.H. & Staal, S.J. 2005. Statistical Methods for Analysing the Spatial Dimension of Changes in Land Use and Farming Systems: LUCC Report Series No. 7. International Livestock Research Institute and Wageningen University.

Lillesand, T., Kiefer, R.W. & Chipman, J. 2014. Remote Sensing and Image Interpretation. New York: John Wiley & Sons.

Liu, H. & Zhou, Q. 2004. Accuracy analysis of remote sensing change detection by rule-based rationality evaluation with post-classification comparison. Int. J. of Remote Sens. 25(5): 1037-1050.

Lu, D., Mausel, P., Brondizio, E. & Moran, E. 2004. Change detection techniques. International Journal of Remote Sensing 25(12): 2365-2401.

Meshesha, D.T., Tsunekawa, A. & Tsubo, M. 2012. Continuing land degradation: Cause-effect in Ethiopia’s Central Rift Valley. Land Degrad. Dev. 23(2): 130-143.

Meshesha, D.T., Tsunekawa, A., Tsubo, M., Ali, S.A. & Haregeweyn, N. 2014. Land-use change and its socio-environmental impact in Eastern Ethiopia’s highland. Reg. Environ. Change 14(2): 757-768.

Messina, J., Adhikari, U., Carroll, J., Chikowo, R., DeVisser, M., Dodge, L., Fan, P., Langley, S., Lin, S. & Me-Nsope, N. 2014. Population growth, climate change and pressure on the land: Eastern and southern Africa. Michigan State University, East Lansing.

Molla, M.B. 2015. Land use/land cover dynamics in the Central Rift Valley Region of Ethiopia: Case of Arsi Negele District. African Journal of Agricultural Research 10(5): 434-449.

Mustard, J.F., Defries, R.S., Fisher, T. & Moran, E. 2012. Land-use and land-cover change pathways and impacts. In Land Change Science. New York: Springer. pp. 411-429.

Muzein, B.S. 2006. Remote sensing & GIS for land cover/land use change detection and analysis in the semi-natural ecosystems and agriculture landscapes of the Central Ethiopian Rift Valley. Dissertation, Technology University of Dresden, Dresden, Germany (Unpublished).

Nega, B., Adenew, B. & Gebre Sellasie, S. 2003. Current land policy issues in Ethiopia. Land Reform, Land Settlement, and Cooperatives 11(3): 103-124.

Nzunda, N., Munishi, P., Soka, G. & Monjare, J. 2013. Influence of socio-economic factors on land use and vegetation cover changes in and around Kagoma forest reserve in Tanzania. Ethiopian Journal of Environmental Studies and Management 6(5): 480-488.

Oduor, N.M., Ngugi, W. & wa Gathui, T. 2012. Sustainable tree management for charcoal production Acacia species in Kenya. Practical Action Consulting East Africa.

Ramankutty, N., Graumlich, L., Achard, F., Alves, D., Chhabra, A., DeFries, R.S., Foley, J.A., Geist, H., Houghton, R.A. & Goldewijk, K.K. 2006. Global land-cover change: Recent progress, remaining challenges. In Land-Use and Land-Cover Change: Local Process and Global Impacts, edited by Eric, F. & Lambin, H.G. New York: Springer-Verlag. pp. 9-39.

Ravindranath, N.H. & Sathaye, J.A. 2002. Climate Change and Developing Countries. Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Reid, R.S., Kruska, R.L., Muthui, N., Taye, A., Wotton, S., Wilson, C.J. & Mulatu, W. 2000. Land-use and land-cover dynamics in response to changes in climatic, biological and socio-political forces: The case of southwestern Ethiopia. Landscape Ecol. 15(4): 339-355.

Richards, J.A. 2013. Supervised classification techniques. In Remote Sensing Digital Image Analysis. 5th ed. New York: Springer. pp. 247-318.

Scholten, W. 2007. Agricultural development and water use in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia: A rapid appraisal. Internship report. The Netherlands: University of Twente, Enshede.

Singh, A. 1989. Digital change detection techniques using remotely-sensed data. Int. J. Remote Sens. 10(6): 989-1003.

Tefera, M.M. 2011. Land-use/land-cover dynamics in Nonno District, Central Ethiopia. Journal of Sustainable Development in Africa 13(1): 123-141.

Temesgen, H., Nyssen, J., Zenebe, A., Haregeweyn, N., Kindu, M., Lemenih, M. & Haile, M. 2013. Ecological succession and land use changes in a lake retreat area (Main Ethiopian Rift Valley). J. Arid. Environ. 91: 53-60.

Temesgen, H., Wu, W., Legesse, A., Yirsaw, E. & Bekele, B. 2018. Landscape-based upstream-downstream prevalence of land-use/cover change drivers in southeastern rift escarpment of Ethiopia. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment 190(3): 166.

Wang, G., Yu, M., Pal, J.S., Mei, R., Bonan, G.B., Levis, S. & Thornton, P.E. 2016. On the development of a coupled regional climate-vegetation model RCM–CLM–CN–DV and its validation in Tropical Africa. Climate Dynamics 46(1-2): 515-539.

Wassenaar, T., Gerber, P., Verburg, P., Rosales, M., Ibrahim, M. & Steinfeld, H. 2007. Projecting land use changes in the Neotropics: The geography of pasture expansion into forest. Global Environmental Change 17(1): 86-104.

Wijedasa, L.S., Sloan, S., Michelakis, D.G. & Clements, G.R. 2012. Overcoming limitations with Landsat imagery for mapping of peat swamp forests in Sundaland. Remote Sens. 4(9): 2595-2618.

Yirsaw, E., Wu, W., Temesgen, H. & Bekele, B. 2017. Socioeconomic drivers of spatio-temporal land use/land cover changes in a rapidly urbanizing area of China, the Su-Xi-Chang Region. Applied Ecology and Environmental Research 15(4): 809-827.

Zeleke, G. & Hurni, H. 2001. Implications of land use and land cover dynamics for mountain resource degradation in the Northwestern Ethiopian highlands. Mountain Research and Development 21(2): 184-191.

Zessner, M., Schönhart, M., Parajka, J., Trautvetter, H., Mitter, H., Kirchner, M., Hepp, G., Blaschke, A.P., Strenn, B. & Schmid, E. 2017. A novel integrated modelling framework to assess the impacts of climate and socio-economic drivers on land use and water quality. Sci. Total Environ. 579: 1137-1151.

Zewdie, W. & Csaplovics, E. 2016. Identifying categorical land use transition and land degradation in Northwestern Drylands of Ethiopia. Remote Sens. 8(5): 408.

Zhang, X., Schaaf, C.B., Friedl, M.A., Strahler, A.H., Gao, F. & Hodges, J.C. 2002. MODIS tasseled cap transformation and its utility. IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium. pp 1063-1065.

*Pengarang untuk surat-menyurat; email: ww@njau.edu.cn