Sains Malaysiana 49(1)(2020): 155-160

http://dx.doi.org/10.17576/jsm-2020-4901-19

Prediction of HIV Mortality in Thailand using Three Data Sets from the National AIDS Program Database

(Anggaran Kematian HIV di Thailand menggunakan Tiga Set Data daripada Pangkalan Data Program AIDS Kebangsaan)

HIWOT D. TULU¹*, APIRADEE LIM¹, ARINDA MA-A-LEE¹, KANITTA BUNDHAMCHAROEN² & NUTTAPAT MAKKA²

¹Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Faculty of Science and Technology, Prince of Songkla University, Pattani Campus, Thailand

²International Health Policy Program, Ministry of Public Health, Nonthaburi, Thailand

Diserahkan: 22 Mac 2019/Diterima: 22 Oktober 2019

ABSTRACT

HIV continues to hinder the growth and development of a country and identifying the mortality rate will help to address this problem. Therefore, we sought to examine HIV mortality in Thailand in the years 2014 and 2015. A retrospective study was conducted to investigate HIV mortality in all regions of Thailand. For the reliability of this study, the data were drawn from two main sources, Bureau of Registration and Administration (BORA) and the National Health Security Office (NHSO) of Thailand. A total of 23,243 deaths were recorded in years 2014 and 2015. Negative binomial regression was used to predict and compare HIV mortality rates by year, age group and gender. The overall HIV mortality accounted for 2.6% of all reported deaths, representing 18.3 deaths per 100,000 populations. Among HIV deaths, 91% of them participated in the National AIDS Program (NAP) and 56% of them received Antiretroviral Therapy (ART). There was statistically significant effect, with males having a higher death rates than females. Despite the relevance of reduction of HIV mortality in Thailand, our study clearly shows that HIV mortality in Thailand is much dependent on age and gender. Thus, we suggest continued effort is needed to address gender and age difference.

Keywords: HIV mortality; National AIDS Program; negative binomial; prediction

ABSTRAK

HIV terus menghalang pertumbuhan dan perkembangan negara dan mengenal pasti kadar kematian akan membantu menangani masalah ini. Oleh itu, kami berusaha meneliti kadar kematian akibat HIV di Thailand pada tahun 2014 dan 2015. Kajian retrospektif telah dijalankan untuk mengkaji kadar kematian HIV di semua rantau di Thailand. Untuk kebolehpercayaan kajian ini, data tersebut diambil daripada dua sumber utama, Biro Pendaftaran dan Pentadbiran (BORA) serta Pejabat Keselamatan Kesihatan Kebangsaan (NHSO) Thailand. Sebanyak 23,243 kematian dicatatkan pada tahun 2014 dan 2015. Regresi binomial negatif digunakan untuk meramalkan dan membandingkan kadar kematian HIV mengikut tahun, kumpulan umur dan jantina. Keseluruhan kematian HIV menyumbang 2.6% daripada semua kematian yang dilaporkan, mewakili 18.3 kematian bagi setiap 100,000 penduduk. Antara kematian akibat HIV, 91% daripadanya telah menyertai Program AIDS Kebangsaan (NAP) dan 56% daripadanya menerima Terapi Antiretroviral (ART). Terdapat kesan yang signifikan secara statistik, dengan lelaki mempunyai kadar kematian lebih tinggi berbanding wanita. Walaupun terdapat relevan pengurangan kematian HIV di Thailand, kajian kami dengan jelas menunjukkan bahawa kematian HIV di Thailand sangat bergantung kepada umur dan jantina. Oleh itu, kami mencadangkan usaha berterusan diperlukan untuk menangani perbezaan jantina.

Kata kunci: Binomial Negatif; kematian HIV; Program AIDS Kebangsaan; ramalan

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*Pengarang untuk surat-menyurat; email: hiwatihiwaye@gmail.com