{"id":9432,"date":"2026-07-31T16:34:34","date_gmt":"2026-07-31T08:34:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ukm.my\/jem\/?post_type=article&#038;p=9432"},"modified":"2026-08-03T12:06:34","modified_gmt":"2026-08-03T04:06:34","slug":"shock-propagation-in-global-value-added-trade-a-network-based-simulation-of-supply-and-demand-crises","status":"publish","type":"article","link":"https:\/\/www.ukm.my\/jem\/article\/shock-propagation-in-global-value-added-trade-a-network-based-simulation-of-supply-and-demand-crises\/","title":{"rendered":"Shock Propagation in Global Value-Added Trade: A Network-Based Simulation of Supply and Demand Crises"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>This study examines countries\u2019 exposure to supply- and demand-side shock propagation in the global trade-in-value added (TiVA) network, with a particular focus on shocks originating from China and the United States using the 2008 and 2018 baseline networks. The study applies network metrics and the Trade Network Shock Propagation (TNSP) model to bilateral TiVA data covering 49 countries from 2008 to 2020. Under the 2018 baseline, supply shocks from China or the United States affect 93.8% of countries in the network. Demand-shock simulations show rising systemic exposure: in 2008, the United States triggered the largest avalanche, while by 2018, China produced an avalanche ratio of 97.9%, matching that of the United States. These findings indicate that both supply- and demand-side disruptions originating from core economies can generate extensive contagion throughout the global TiVA network. The study extends trade network analysis by integrating value-added trade data with scenario-based shock-propagation modelling. Policymakers should monitor concentrated supplier-buyer dependencies, diversify supplier and market exposure, and strengthen regional trade coordination.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"template":"","tags":[2043,2045,2044,76],"jel-code":[],"article-type":[1329],"class_list":["entry","author-asriwn","post-9432","article","type-article","status-publish","tag-global-value-chains","tag-network-analysis","tag-trade-network","tag-value-added-trade","article-type-normal-article"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ukm.my\/jem\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/article\/9432","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ukm.my\/jem\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/article"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ukm.my\/jem\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/article"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.ukm.my\/jem\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/article\/9432\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9442,"href":"https:\/\/www.ukm.my\/jem\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/article\/9432\/revisions\/9442"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ukm.my\/jem\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9432"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ukm.my\/jem\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9432"},{"taxonomy":"jel-code","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ukm.my\/jem\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/jel-code?post=9432"},{"taxonomy":"article-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ukm.my\/jem\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/article-type?post=9432"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}