Sains Malaysiana 49(10)(2020): 2359-2371

http://dx.doi.org/10.17576/jsm-2020-4910-03

Current and Future Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves based on Weighted Ensemble GCMs and Temporal Disaggregation

(Lengkung Keamatan-Tempoh-Frekuensi Semasa dan Masa Hadapan berdasarkan Pemberatan GCM Ensembel dan Pengasingan Temporal)

NURADDEEN MUKHTAR NASIDI^1,3*, AIMRUN WAYAYOK^1,2, AHMAD FIKRI ABDULLAH^1,2 & MUHAMAD SAUFI MOHD KASSIM^1,2

¹Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Putra Malaysia, 43300 UPM Serdang, Selangor Darul Ehsan, Malaysia

²SMART Farming Technology Research Center, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Putra Malaysia, 43300 UPM Serdang, Selangor Darul Ehsan, Malaysia

³Department of Agricultural and Environmental Engineering, Bayero University, Kano, P.M.B. 3011, Gwarzo Road, Kano – Nigeria

Received: 10 March 2020/Accepted: 9 May 2020

ABSTRACT

Hydrological events are expected to increase in both magnitude and frequency in tropical areas due to climate variability. The Intensity – Duration – Frequency (IDF) curves are important means of evaluating the efficiency of irrigation and drainage systems. The necessity to update IDF curves arises from the need to gain better understanding of the impacts of climate change. This study explores an approach based on weighted Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and temporal disaggregation method to develop future IDFs under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) emission scenarios. The work consists of 20 ensemble GCMs, three RCPs (2.6, 4.5, and 8.5) and two projection periods (2050s and 2080s). The study compared three statistical distributions and selected Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) being the best fitting distribution with baseline rainfall series and therefore used for IDF projection. The result obtained shows that, the highest rainfall intensities of 19.32, 35.07 and 39.12 mm/hr occurred under 2-, 5-, and 20 years return periods, respectively. IDFs from the multi-model ensemble GCMs have shown increasing intensity in the future for all the return periods. This study indicated that the method could produce promising results which can be extended to other catchments.

Keywords: Cameron Highlands; climate change; flooding; HYETOS; soil erosion

ABSTRAK

Kejadian hidrologi dijangka meningkat pada magnitud dan kekerapan di kawasan tropika kerana perubahan iklim. Lengkung Keamatan-Tempoh-Frekuensi (IDF) ialah kaedah penting untuk menilai kecekapan sistem pengairan dan saliran. Keperluan untuk mengemas kini lengkung IDF timbul daripada keperluan untuk mendapatkan pemahaman yang lebih baik mengenai kesan perubahan iklim. Kajian ini meneliti pendekatan berdasarkan pemberatan Model Peredaran Global (GCM) dan kaedah tidak pengagregatan secara temporal untuk memajukan IDF masa hadapan di bawah senario pelepasanLaluan Konsentrasi Perwakilan (RCP). Karya ini terdiri daripada 20 GCM ensembel, tiga RCP (2.6, 4.5 dan 8.5) dan dua tempoh unjuran (2050-an dan 2080-an). Kajian ini membandingkan tiga taburan statistik dan Nilai Ekstrim Umum (GEV) terpilih sebagai taburan yang paling sesuai dengan garis tapak siri curahan hujan. Oleh itu, ia digunakan untuk unjuran IDF. Hasil yang diperoleh menunjukkan bahawa keamatan curahan hujan tertinggi ialah 19.32, 35.07 dan 39.12 mm/jam dan masing-masing berlaku dalam jangka masa pengembalian 2-, 5- dan 20 tahun. IDF daripada multi-model GCM ensembel telah menunjukkan peningkatan keamatan pada masa hadapan untuk semua tempoh pengembalian. Kajian ini menunjukkan bahawa kaedah tersebut dapat menghasilkan keputusan yang menggalakkan serta dapat diaplikasikan ke kawasan tadahan curahan hujan yang lain.

Kata kunci: Banjir; hakisan tanah; HYETOS; perubahan iklim; Tanah Tinggi Cameron

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*Corresponding author; email: nuramnasidi@gmail.com