Sains Malaysiana 50(9)(2021): 2791-2817

http://doi.org/10.17576/jsm-2021-5009-24

Diversification of Agricultural Areas in Indonesia using Dynamic Copula Modeling and K-Means Clustering

(Pempelbagaian Kawasan Pertanian di Indonesia menggunakan Pemodelan Copula Dinamik dan Pengelompokan K-Min)

ATINA AHDIKA¹*, MUJIATI DWI KARTIKASARI¹, SEKTI KARTIKA DINI¹ & INTAN RAMADHANI^2,3

¹Department of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Islam Indonesia, Yogyakarta, Indonesia

²Alumnus of Department of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Islam Indonesia, Yogyakarta, Indonesia

³PT Sigma Cipta Caraka (TelkomSigma), Tangerang, Indonesia

Diserahkan: 20 Julai 2020/Diterima: 15 Januari 2021

ABSTRACT

Agriculture is one of the main pillars of economic growth in Indonesia. Failure in this sector can result in faltering economic stability of the country. Thus, to minimize these failures, mapping of areas with particular commodity potential is needed. One of the main factors affecting the growth of crops is rainfall. Therefore, this paper aims to model the potential distribution of commodity growth based on rainfall precipitation using dynamic copula. The modeling results are then used as a basis for grouping the potential of food crop commodities in Indonesia. The determination of the group was carried out using the k-means clustering method. We expect that the result of the modeling can provide an overview for farmers or the government to make policies related to the optimization of Indonesia's agricultural sector. This result will enable the government to offer facilities that can minimize agricultural losses, such as superior seeds that are resistant to weather changes and the provision of training for enhancing farming skills. In addition, it is also suggested to diversify farm areas to reduce the failures due to dependence on a single agricultural product.

Keywords: Agriculture; diversification; dynamic copula; k-means clustering

ABSTRAK

Pertanian adalah satu daripada tonggak utama yang mendorong ekonomi di Indonesia. Kegagalan dalam sektor ini boleh mengakibatkan kestabilan ekonomi di negara ini merosot. Oleh sebab itu, untuk mengurangkan kegagalan ini, diperlukan pemetaan kawasan dengan potensi komoditi tertentu. Satu daripada faktor utama yang mempengaruhi pertumbuhan tanaman adalah hujan. Oleh sebab itu, makalah ini bertujuan untuk memodelkan potensi penyebaran pertumbuhan komoditi berdasarkan curahan hujan menggunakan model copula dinamik. Hasil pemodelan kemudian digunakan sebagai dasar untuk mengelompokkan potensi komoditi tanaman makanan di Indonesia. Penentuan kelompok dilakukan dengan kaedah pengelompokan k-min. Penulis mengharapkan hasil pemodelan dapat memberikan gambaran umum kepada petani atau kerajaan untuk membuat polisi yang berkaitan dengan pengoptimuman sektor pertanian Indonesia. Kerajaan dapat menawarkan kemudahan yang dapat meminimumkan kerugian dalam pertanian, seperti benih unggul yang tahan terhadap perubahan cuaca dan pemberian latihan kepada petani untuk meningkatkan kemahiran mereka. Sebagai tambahan, dicadangkan juga supaya petani mempelbagaikan kawasan pertanian untuk mengurangkan kegagalan akibat kebergantungan pada satu produk pertanian sahaja.

Kata kunci: Copula dinamik; pempelbagaian; pengelompokan k-min; pertanian

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*Pengarang untuk surat-menyurat; email: atina.a@uii.ac.id