Sains Malaysiana 50(3)(2021): 629-644

http://doi.org/10.17576/jsm-2021-5003-06

Long Term Trend Analysis of Upstream and Middle-Stream River in Langat Basin, Selangor, Malaysia

(Analisis Tren Jangka Panjang Huluan dan Aliran Tengah Sungai di Lembangan Langat, Selangor, Malaysia)

SITI HAWA MOHD YUSOFF^1,2, FIRDAUS MOHAMAD HAMZAH¹*, OTHMAN JAAFAR¹ & HAZRINA TAJUDIN¹

¹Department of Civil and Structural Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Built Environment, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600 UKM Bangi, Selangor Darul Ehsan, Malaysia

²Department of Science and Biotechnology, Faculty of Engineering and Life Sciences, Universiti Selangor, 45600 Bestari Jaya, Selangor Darul Ehsan, Malaysia

Received: 27 May 2020/Accepted: 8 August 2020

ABSTRACT

The present study investigates the trend in long term monthly streamflow of Sungai Lui (upstream) and Sungai Kajang (middle-stream) of the Sungai Langat Basin located in Selangor, Malaysia. The Mann-Kendall (MK) and Innovative Trend Method (ITM) tests were utilized to assess the trends at the two stations. The trend free pre-whitening (TFPW) and variance correction (VC) tests were used to assess the effects of serial correlation on the established trend, and Sen’s slope estimator was used to assess the magnitude of streamflow. Based on Sen’s Slope estimator results, the trend magnitude for Lui station is very small compared to the Kajang station. The Kajang station shows the highest increase in trend magnitude for November. The results of TFPW and VC trend tests showed that the most significant increasing trend of months occurred at Kajang station, while the less increasing significant trend of months occurred at Lui station. It can be concluded that similar trend results were obtained when the modified Mann-Kendall and ITM were applied to the same data for Sungai Lui and Sungai Kajang. The study found that there is a significant difference in terms of trend and magnitud between upstream and middle-stream.

Keywords: Innovative trend method; Mann-Kendall; Sen’s slope; trend free pre-whitening; variance correction

ABSTRAK

Kajian dilakukan terhadap tren aliran bulanan jangka panjang bagi Sungai Lui (aliran hulu) dan Sungai Kajang (aliran tengah) di Lembangan Sungai Langat yang terletak di Selangor, Malaysia. Ujian Mann-Kendall (MK) dan Kaedah Inovatif Tren (ITM) digunakan untuk menilai tren aliran di kedua-dua stesen tersebut. Ujian pra-pemutihan bebas tren (TFPW) dan pembetulan varians (VC) digunakan untuk menilai kesan korelasi bersiri pada tren dan penganggar cerun Sen digunakan untuk menilai magnitud aliran sungai. Berdasarkan hasil penganggar cerun Sen, magnitud tren untuk stesen Lui sangat kecil berbanding dengan stesen Kajang. Stesen Kajang menunjukkan peningkatan tren magnitud tertinggi untuk bulan November. Hasil ujian tren TFPW dan VC menunjukkan bahawa peningkatan tren bulanan yang paling ketara berlaku di stesen Kajang, sementara peningkatan tren bulanan yang kurang ketara berlaku di stesen Lui. Ia dapat disimpulkan bahawa hasil keputusan tren yang sama diperoleh apabila kaedah modifikasi Mann-Kendall dan ITM diterapkan pada data yang sama untuk Sungai Lui dan Sungai Kajang. Kajian ini mendapati bahawa terdapat perbezaan yang signifikan daripada segi tren dan magnitud aliran di antara aliran hulu dan aliran tengah.

Kata kunci: Cerun Sen; kaedah innovatif tren; Mann-Kendall; pembetulan varians; ujian tren pra-pemutihan

REFERENCES

Amirabadizadeh, M., Huang, Y.F. & Lee, T.S. 2015. Recent trends in temperature and precipitation in the Langat River Basin, Malaysia. Advances in Meteorology 2015: 579437.

Ay, M. & Kisi, O. 2015. Investigation of trend analysis of monthly total precipitation by an innovative method. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 120(3-4): 617-629.

Azam, M., Maeng, S.J., Kim, H.S., Lee, S.W. & Lee, J.E. 2018. Spatial and temporal trend analysis of precipitation and drought in South Korea. Water 10(6): 765.

Bayazit, M. & Önöz, B. 2009. To prewhiten or not to prewhiten in trend analysis? Hyrological Sciences 52(4): 611-624.

Booij, M.J., Schipper, T.C. & Marhaento, H. 2019. Attributing changes in streamflow to land use and climate change for 472 catchments in Australia and the United States. Water 11(5): 1059.

Chattopadhyay, S. & Edwards, D.R. 2016. Long-term trend analysis of precipitation and air temperature for Kentucky, United States. Climate 4(1): 10.

Chen, Y., Guan, Y., Shao, G. & Zhang, D. 2016. Investigating trends in streamflow and precipitation in Huangfuchuan basin with wavelet analysis and the Mann-Kendall test. Water 8(3): 77.

Cristina, L., Dias, P., Macedo, M.N., Heil, M., Coe, M.T. & Neill, C. 2015. Regional studies effects of land cover change on evapotranspiration and streamflow of small catchments in the Upper Xingu River basin, Central Brazil. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies 4(Part B): 108-122.

da Silva, R.M., Santos, C.A.G., Moreira, M., Corte-Real, J., Silva, V.C.L. & Medeiros, I.C. 2015. Rainfall and river flow trends using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope estimator statistical tests in the Cobres River basin. Natural Hazards 77(2): 1205-1221.

Diop, L., Yaseen, Z.M., Bodian, A. & Djaman, K. 2017. Trend analysis of streamflow with different time scales: A case study of the upper Senegal River. ISH Journal of Hydraulic Engineering 5010: 1-10.

Ebrahimian, M., Nuruddin, A.A., Amin, M., Soom, M., Sood, A.M. & Neng, L.J. 2018. Trend analysis of major hydroclimatic variables in the Langat River basin, Malaysia. Singapore Journal of Tropical Geography 39(2): 192-214.

Gavrilov, M.B., Tošić, I., Marković, S.B., Unkašević, M. & Petrović, P. 2016. Analysis of annual and seasonal temperature trends using the Mann-Kendall test in Vojvodina, Serbia. Quarterly Journal of the Hungarian Meteorological Service 120(2): 183-198.

Greenpeace Research Laboratories. 2013. An Impending Storm Impacts of Deforestation on Weather Patterns and Agriculture. Amsterdam: Greenpeace International.

Hajani, E., Rahman, A. & Ishak, E. 2017. Trends in extreme rainfall in the State of New Trends in extreme rainfall in the State of New South Wales, Australia. Hydrological Sciences Journal 62(13): 2160-2174.

Hamed, K.H. & Ramachandra, R. 1998. A modified Mann-Kendall trend test for autocorrelated data. Journal of Hydrology 204(1-4): 182-196.

Hamzah, F.M., Yusoff, S.H.M. & Jaafar, O. 2019. L-moment-based frequency analysis of high-flow at Sungai Langat, Kajang, Selangor, Malaysia. Sains Malaysiana 48(7): 1357-1366.

Hamzah, F.M., Saimi, F.M. & Jaafar, O. 2017. Identifying the monotonic trend in climate change parameter in Kluang and Senai. Sains Malaysiana 46(10): 1735-1741.

Jan, N.A.M., Shabri, A., Hounkpe, J. & Badyalina, B. 2018. Modelling non-stationary extreme streamflow in Peninsular Malaysia. International Journal of Water 12(2): 116-140.

Juahir, H., Zain, S.M., Aris, A.Z., Yusof, M.K., Armi, M., Samah, A. & Mokhtar, M. 2010. Hydrological trend analysis due to land use changes at Langat River basin. Environment Asia 3(Special Issue): 20-31.

Kendall, M.G. 1957. Rank Correlation Methods. 4th ed. London: Charles Griffin.

Kisi, O., Santos, C.A.G., Silva, R.M. & Zounemat-Kermani, M. 2018. Trend analysis of monthly streamflows using Şen’s innovative trend method. Geofizika 35: 53-68.

Levy, M.C., Lopes, A.V., Cohn, A., Larsen, L.G. & Thompson, S.E. 2018. Land use change increases streamflow across the arc of deforestation in Brazil. Geophysical Research Letters 45(8): 3520-3530.

Mayowa, O.O., Pour, S.H. & Shahid, S. 2015. Trends in rainfall and rainfall-related extremes in the east coast of peninsular Malaysia. Journal of Earth System Science 124(8): 1609-1622.

Memarian, H. & Balasundram, S.K. 2016. Hydrological trend analysis integrated with landscape analysis at the watershed scale (case study: Langat basin, Malaysia). In Landscape Ecology - The Influences of Land Use and Anthropogenic Impacts of Landscape Creation. London: IntechOpen. pp. 61-84.

Mohammed, T.A., Al-Hassoun, S. & Ghazali, A.H. 2011. Prediction of flood levels along a stretch of the Langat River with insufficient hydrological data. Pertanika Journal of Science and Technology 19(2): 237-248.

Mustapha, A. 2013. Detecting surface water quality trends using Mann-Kendall tests and Sen’s slope estimates. International Journal of Advanced and Innovative Research 2: 108-114.

Önöz, B. & Bayazit, M. 2003. The power of statistical tests for trend detection. Turkish Journal of Engineering and Environmental Sciences 27(4): 247-251.

Oztopal, A. & Sen, Z. 2017. Innovative trend methodology applications to precipitation records in Turkey. Water Resources Management 31(3): 727-737.

Palizdan, N., Falamarzi, Y., Huang, Y.F., Lee, T.S. & Ghazali, A.H. 2015. Temporal precipitation trend analysis at the Langat River basin, Selangor, Malaysia. Journal of Earth System Science 124(8): 1623-1638.

Palizdan, N., Falamarzi, Y., Huang, Y.F., Lee, T.S. & Ghazali, A.H. 2014. Regional precipitation trend analysis at the Langat River. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 117(3-4): 589-606.

Piyoosh, A.K. & Ghosh, S.K. 2017. Effect of autocorrelation on temporal trends in rainfall in a valley region at the foothills of Indian Himalayas. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment 31(8): 2075-2096.

Rahman, M.A., Yunsheng, L. & Sultana, N. 2017. Analysis and prediction of rainfall trends over Bangladesh using Mann-Kendall, Spearman’s rho tests and ARIMA model. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 129(4): 409-424.

Rao, A.R., Azli, M. & Pae, L.J. 2011. Identification of trends in Malaysian monthly runoff under the scaling hypothesis. Hydrological Sciences Journal 56(6): 917-929.

Rim, C. 2017. Implications of geographical factors and trends of climatic factors on aridity/humidity trends. Journal of Scientific Research & Reports 17(6): 1-11.

Sa, Z., Ismail, T., Sung, E., Xiao, C. & Wang, J. 2017. Trends analysis of rainfall and rainfall extremes in Sarawak, Malaysia using modified Mann-Kendall test. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 131(3): 263-277.

Sagarika, S., Kalra, A. & Ahmad, S. 2014. Evaluating the effect of persistence on long-term trends and analyzing step changes in streamflows of the continental United States. Journal of Hydrology 517: 36-53.

Salman, S.A., Shahid, S., Ismail, T., Chung, E. & Al-abadi, A.M. 2017. Long-term trends in daily temperature extremes in Iraq. Atmospheric Research 198: 97-107.

Samsudin, M.S., Khalit, S.I., Juahir, H., Fahmi, M. & Nasir, M. 2017. Application of Mann-Kendall in analyzing water quality data trend at Perlis, Malaysia. International Journal on Advanced Science, Engineering and Information Technologi 7(1): 78.

Sen, P.K. 1968. Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s Tau. Journal of the American Statistical Association 63(324): 1379-1389.

Sen, Z. 2014. Trend identification simulation and application. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering 19(3): 635-642.

Sen, Z. 2012. Innovative trend analysis methodology. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering 17(9): 1042-1046.

Sulaiman, N.H., Kamarudin, M K.A., Mustafa, A.D., Amran, M.A., Azaman, F., Abidin, I.Z. & Hairoma, N. 2015. Analisis corak sungai Pahang menggunakan kaedah bukan parametrik: Ujian corak Mann Kendall. Malaysian Journal of Analytical Sciences 19(6):  1327-1334.

Terzioglu, Z.O., Kankal, M., Yuksek, O., Nemli, M.O. & Akcay, F. 2019. Analysis of the precipitation intensity values of various durations in Trabzon Province of Turkey by Sen’s innovative trend method. Sigma Journal of Engineering and Natural Sciences 37(1): 241-250.

Thenmozhi, M. & Kottiswaran, A.V. 2016. Analysis of rainfall trend using Mann-Kendall test and the Sen’s Slope estimator in Udumalpet of Tirupur district in Tamil Nadu. International Journal of Agricultural 6(2): 131-138.

Wang, C., Shang, S., Han, Y., Sauvage, S., Sanchez-Perez, J.M., Kuramochi, K. & Hatano, R. 2018. Integrated Effects of land use and topography on streamflow response to precipitation in an agriculture-forest dominated northern watershed. Water 10(633): 633.

Yang, H.W., Jaafar, O., El.-Shafie, A. & Sharifah Mastura, S.A. 2011. Analysis of hydrological processes of Langat River sub basins at Lui and Dengkil. International Journal of the Physical Sciences 6(32): 7390-7409.

Yue, S., Pilon, P., Phinney, B. & Cavadias, G. 2002. The influence of autocorrelation on the ability to detect trend in hydrological series. Hydrological Processes 16(9): 1807-1829.

Yue, S. & Wang, C.Y. 2002. Applicability of prewhitening to eliminate the influence of serial correlation on the Mann-Kendall test. Water Resources Research 38(6): 41-47.

Zhang, S., Lu, X.X., Higgitt, D.L., Chen, C.T.A., Han, J. & Sun, H. 2008. Recent changes of water discharge and sediment load in the Zhujiang (Pearl River) basin, China. Global and Planetary Change 60(3-4): 365-380.

Zhao, J., Huang, Q., Chang, J., Liu, D., Huang, S. & Shi, X. 2015. Analysis of temporal and spatial trends of hydro-climatic variables in the Wei River basin. Environmental Research 139: 55-64.

*Corresponding author; email: fir@ukm.edu.my