Sains Malaysiana 44(10)(2015): 1423–1430

Estimation of Basic Reproduction Number for Dengue Fever in Lahore, Pakistan

(Penganggaran Asas Nombor Pembiakan R0 untuk Demam Denggi di Lahore, Pakistan)

NOOR BADSHAH *, HASSAN SHAH & MUHAMMAD JAVID

Department of Basic Sciences, University of Engineering of Technology Peshawar, Pakistan

Diserahkan: 8 September 2013/Diterima: 15 Jun 2015

ABSTRACT

Dengue fever is a vector-borne viral disease which is now endemic in more than 100 countries affecting more than 2.5 billion people worldwide. In recent years, dengue fever has become a major threat to public health in Pakistan. In this paper, we derived an explicit formula for reproduction number R0 (the most important epidemiological parameter) and then used real data of dengue fever cases of different hospitals of Lahore (Pakistan) on R0. Conditions for local stability of equilibrium points are discussed. In the end, simulations are carried out for different situations.

Keywords: Endemic; equilibrium points; simulations; SIR model; stability

ABSTRAK

Demam denggi adalah penyakit bawaan vektor virus yang kini berleluasa di lebih 100 buah negara yang melibatkan lebih daripada 2.5 bilion penduduk di seluruh dunia. Sejak kebelakangan ini, demam denggi telah menjadi satu ancaman utama kepada kesihatan awam di Pakistan. Dalam kertas ini, kami menerbitkan formula yang jelas untuk nombor pembiakan R0 (parameter epidemiologi yang paling penting) dan kemudian menggunakan data sebenar kes demam denggi daripada hospital berbeza di Lahore (Pakistan) untuk R0. Syarat untuk titik keseimbangan kestabilan tempatan dibincangkan. Akhirnya, simulasi dijalankan untuk situasi yang berbeza.

Kata kunci: Endemik; kestabilan; Model SIR; simulasi; titik keseimbangan

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*Pengarang untuk surat-menyurat; email: noor2knoor@gmail.com