Probabilistic Structural Mechanics

 

Lecturer          Prof Ahmad Kamal Ariffin Mohd Ihsan

Time                Thursday  13.00 – 16.00

Course starts: 21 October 2010

 

Location         V15 S04 C57 (Inst. of Mechanics, Essen Campus)

 

Website          www.eng.ukm.my/kamal/psm/

 

Seminar          Deterministic & Probabilistic Approach for Fracture Mechanics [pdf 9.4M]

                        15 Dec 2010, 5pm 

 

Introduction

The uncertainty behaviors of the engineering variable are the major cause of failure of the engineering structure and its gains a lot of attention from various engineering discipline. One of the main objectives of structure engineering design is to ensure the safety and performance of an engineering system for specified functions and loading condition in a given period of time. The reliability assessment based analysis method which will consider the stochastic behavior of the engineering variables such as mechanical properties, structure geometric, loading and environment condition is needed to apply to any structure design to prevent any failure occurs in the engineering structure. There are many methods are proposed and applied to determine the probability of failure of structures. The method can reduce the simulation afford in term of time, number of simulation needed and computer memory storage with the similar accuracy if compare some other methods.

 

Goals

This course aims at exposing the student to basic concepts and issues that are essential to probability modeling of structural mechanics. After completing this course students

1) possess a good overview of probability and reliability;

2) possess a good basis for reading and understanding literature on probability and uncertainty;

3) are able to apply basic methods of mathematical statistics and probability theory;

4) are able to incorporate stochastic methods and principles in structure mechanics and model building;

5) will appreciate the added value of the probability approach, i.e. “it pays to be certain about uncertainty”.

 

Syllabus

The course aims at introducing computational process of reliability and durability of structures. The correlation of failure problem, safety level and the optimization during design. Selection of probabilistic methods which involve uncertainty parameters. A project involving component and structure to demonstrate the influence of parameters uncertainty on the prediction of   structural reliability.

 

Topics:

 

  1. Introduction

- course objective

- background                                                                          

- computation process of reliability and durability of structures

- experimental uncertainty and error analysis                      [note1.pdf]

 

2.      Understanding probability, reliability and engineering analysis

- definitions; deterministic, parameters, safety, probability, reliability, uncertainty, stochastic, durability                                                          [note2.pdf]

- The mathematics of uncertainty: models, methods and interpretations

                                                                                                [note3a.pdf]

- correlation of failure problem, safety level and the optimization during design

                                                                                                [note3b.f]

- Difficulties related to numerical predictions

 

  1. Probabilistic methods
    - monte carlo simulation                                                        [
    note3c.pdf] [additional reading]
    - modified monte carlo                                                          [
    note3d.pdf]

- important sampling                                                              [note3e.pdf]

- latin hypercube sampling                                                     [note3f.pdf]

- fuzzy model                                                                          [note3g.pdf] [additional reading]

 

  1. Stochastic finite element project
    - project involving component and structure [FFEM as main project]

- Widening the Perspectives                                                   [review]  0006.gif

 

 

 

Registration

The number of participants to this course is limited (registration necessary)

Please email your registration to kamal@eng.ukm.my

Places are limited.

 

References

1.      Analyzing Uncertainty in Civil Engineering. W. Fellin · H. Lessmann · M. Oberguggenberger R. Vieider (Eds.), Wolfgang Fellin · Heimo Lessmann, ISBN 3-540-22246-4 Springer Berlin Heidelberg New York, 2005

 

2.      Robust Design Methodology for Reliability, eds Bo Bergman, Jacques de MarŽe, Sara LorŽen and Thomas Svensson, 2009, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd Sussex UK

 

3.      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cone_of_Uncertainty

 

4.      Uncertainty Assessment of Large Finite Element Systems, Christian A. Schenk & Gerhart I. Schušeller, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2005

 

5.      Computational Statistics Handbook with MATLAB, Wendy L. Martinez, Angel R. Martinez, CRC Press 2002